ewx: (Default)
Richard Kettlewell ([personal profile] ewx) wrote2003-08-27 11:45 pm

(no subject)

sfere$ md5sum prediction-2003-08-27
e71fb8642b0fbcb0212e434d2e2418e1  prediction-2003-08-27

[identity profile] senji.livejournal.com 2003-08-27 04:06 pm (UTC)(link)
So, how long, theoretically, should it take me to decode e71fb8642b0fbcb0212e434d2e2418e1 into something plausible?
ext_8103: (Default)

[identity profile] ewx.livejournal.com 2003-08-27 04:19 pm (UTC)(link)
Depends how long you think the input might be...
gerald_duck: (Default)

[personal profile] gerald_duck 2003-08-27 05:50 pm (UTC)(link)
It's probably quicker and simpler to hack the machine the file is on - I bet his password contains less entropy than the prediction.

(NB: Joking!)

[identity profile] keirf.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 03:21 am (UTC)(link)
[The MD5 algorithm] takes as input a message of arbitrary length and produces as output a 128-bit "fingerprint" or "message digest" of the input. It is conjectured that it is computationally infeasible to produce two messages having the same message digest, or to produce any message having a given prespecified target message digest.

It's therefore computationally infeasible for you to produce a message that has this MD5 fingerprint.

[identity profile] senji.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 03:27 am (UTC)(link)
Well, assuming I don't have out of band information like the file length.

For instance:

: pts/5[r] bash[7183] ; md5sum /tmp/file
0cc175b9c0f1b6a831c399e269772661  /tmp/file
: pts/5[r] bash[7184] ; ls -l /tmp/file
-rw-rw-r--    1 jdamery  jdamery         1 Aug 28 11:26 /tmp/file


And you ought to be able to discover what the contents of /tmp/file are without *too* much effort.

[identity profile] keirf.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 03:49 am (UTC)(link)
So you're saying that if you get access to ewx's machine, you can md5sum all the files on it, and find the one that produces the same signature as the one in this post, in which case you can read the contents of that file and find out his prediction?

That doesn't seem to be the same as decoding the signature to me.

[identity profile] senji.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 03:51 am (UTC)(link)
No, what I'm saying is, that if I can make a plausible guess at the length of ewx's file, and the contents (probably ASCII text) then the search domain decreases in size dramatically.

[identity profile] keirf.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 03:55 am (UTC)(link)
Ah, gotcha. So if for example you know it's 1024 bytes long, you just md5sum all 256^1024 possible files till you get one that has the same signature. And if you know it's ASCII in gramatically correct English you have an even smaller search space.

Well, what are you waiting for?
simont: A picture of me in 2016 (Default)

[personal profile] simont 2003-08-28 11:23 am (UTC)(link)
Not so. Suppose the file is (say) 60 bytes long, and suppose your plausible guess at its contents limits each character to (say) 60 possibilities. I think those aren't too unreasonable; if you attempt to invoke dependency between characters (because the file is assumed to be intelligible English text) then I'll counter with the observation that any sensible player of this game will have included some random goop in their file along with the text, to defeat just this strategy.

So. If you know the file length is 60 bytes, then you have 60^60 possibilities. But what if you know it's up to 60 bytes? Well, then you have 60^0 + 60^1 + 60^2 + ... + 60^60 possibilities. But the interesting thing is that 60^0 + ... + 60^59 comes to (60^60 - 1)/(60 - 1). In other words, the number of possible strings with length strictly less than 60 is 1/59 times the number of possible strings with length exactly 60. This doesn't seem to me to be a dramatic reduction in the search space! You might just as well start from length zero and generate all possible strings until you hit the target md5sum; the longer the target string actually is, the smaller a proportion of your search time you'll turn out to have wasted by trying things of the wrong length.
ext_8103: (Default)

any sensible player of this game will have included some random goop

[identity profile] ewx.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 11:40 am (UTC)(link)
Some at the start, and some at the end, in this case.

[identity profile] keirf.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 05:02 am (UTC)(link)
"a"

[identity profile] mobbsy.livejournal.com 2003-08-27 04:58 pm (UTC)(link)
Are you going to reveal this either way, or just if you're right?

When?
ext_8103: (Default)

[identity profile] ewx.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 12:23 am (UTC)(link)
If I discover I'm right, I intend to reveal it then. If I discover I'm wrong I'll probably mention so without saying what the prediction was.
simont: A picture of me in 2016 (Default)

[personal profile] simont 2003-08-28 02:57 am (UTC)(link)
Unless you can be talked into revealing it anyway in a moment of weakness. Stranger things have happened ;-)

(Any hints as to the time frame or probability, just for the curious?)
ext_8103: (Default)

[identity profile] ewx.livejournal.com 2003-08-28 11:09 am (UTC)(link)
It refers to things I think are happening or starting to happen now. It's a bit of a stab in the dark anyway and I'm feeling even less sure about it now than I was when I posted.

[identity profile] kaet.livejournal.com 2003-08-29 12:02 pm (UTC)(link)
I was thinking it was Campbell's resingation! :) Perhaps we should create MD5's to predict your predictions, :).