What if…

[ewx]

I’d been wondering about this. What if the LDs found they just couldn’t get PR, gave up the whole third-party thing as a bad job, and merged with the Labour party? Well, on this election’s numbers:

                                   Party     Votes  Seats
=========================================================
                                  Labour: 15389322    433
                            Conservative: 10658048    189
               Democratic Unionist Party:   168216      8
                 Scottish National Party:   491386      5
                               Sinn Fein:   171942      5
        Social Democratic & Labour Party:   110970      3
                             Plaid Cymru:   163196      1
                             Independent:   140537      1
                          Alliance Party:    42762      1
                                 Speaker:    22860      1

The outcome is even more extreme if they merged with the Conservatives instead:

                                   Party     Votes  Seats
=========================================================
                            Conservative: 17464146    483
                                  Labour:  8583224    140
               Democratic Unionist Party:   168216      8
                               Sinn Fein:   171942      5
                             Plaid Cymru:   163196      3
        Social Democratic & Labour Party:   110970      3
                 Scottish National Party:   491386      2
                             Independent:   140537      1
                          Alliance Party:    42762      1
                                 Speaker:    22860      1

The actual outcome in the same format, just for completeness:

                                   Party     Votes  Seats
=========================================================
                            Conservative: 10658048    305
                                  Labour:  8583224    257
                        Liberal Democrat:  6806098     56
               Democratic Unionist Party:   168216      8
                 Scottish National Party:   491386      6
                               Sinn Fein:   171942      5
                             Plaid Cymru:   163196      3
        Social Democratic & Labour Party:   110970      3
                             Independent:   140537      1
                          Alliance Party:    42762      1
                                   Green:   285616      1
                                 Speaker:    22860      1

(In each case only parties winning at least one seat are shown. Errors and omissions (such as Thirsk & Malton) excepted.)

Comments

[arnhem.livejournal.com]

Except that a significant proportion of LDs voters would shift the opposite way to the direction the LD party merged.

[aldabra]

And those of us that are actively anti two party government would shift orthogonally.

[mooism.livejournal.com]

What if Labour had tried to hold on to power by merging with the Conservatives?

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Don't give them any ideas.

[ewx.livejournal.com]

If Labour merged with the Conservatives:
                                   Party     Votes  Seats
=========================================================
                            Conservative: 19241272    598
                        Liberal Democrat:  6806098     28
               Democratic Unionist Party:   168216      8
                               Sinn Fein:   171942      5
        Social Democratic & Labour Party:   110970      3
                 Scottish National Party:   491386      1
                             Plaid Cymru:   163196      1
                             Independent:   140537      1
                          Alliance Party:    42762      1
                                 Speaker:    22860      1

[ronebofh.livejournal.com]

Is this an actually plausible scenario or merely a thought experiment?

[ewx.livejournal.com]

Thought experiment, and a fairly silly one at that (see tags). In reality you wouldn’t get all the MPs moving one way: some would move the other, some would continue in a rump party (as in the 1920s (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Liberal_Party_%28UK%29#Liberal_decline)). The voters would go every which way, as arnhem and aldabra say.

[beingjdc.livejournal.com]

Surprised the SNP would only lose one (Dundee, I guess) in that scenario, though I guess they hold few, and some are Scotland's more Tory areas.

[(Anonymous)]

The main thing is that the SNP shouldn't merge with the SDLP. That'd just result in a very long party name and it wouldn't get them any more seats.