Some of the reporting on the assassination takes the view that it shows the Mossad are a bunch of bunglers. Maybe that's so, but it seems to me to assume facts not in evidence. The article implies that the aims of the operation must have been something like these:
Assassinate Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh
Extract agents unharmed
Preserve secrecy of operation
Avoid embarrassment for Israel
and that the failure of (3) and (4) is effectively a failure of the whole operation. But is this really the case? Is it possible that the Mossad were well aware that covering up an operation like this is unlikely and that goals (3) and (4) may have to be traded off in order to achieve the more important goals (1) and (2)?
A good point, and they may well assume that with CCTV being rather ubiquitous, someone's going to get film of their agents. Still, the bit about the uniform payment cards and phone switchboard might have been something they could have done better; making it hard to connect the agents seems important to goal (2).
Note, though, that the agents weren't connected until long after they had safety left the country; and that the payment cards were used at different hotels, so the chances of the coincidence being spotted during the short operational window were low. That some of them used cash suggests that they knew that was an option; perhaps they had a reason for not doing so in the other cases.
The 'phone switchboard actually seems like a good idea, from the point of view of making it take longer to connect them (and therefore possibly giving precious extra time to get away) -- if you call someone direct and your pursuers look at your 'phone logs, they immediately have the other number. But if you call through a switchboard, they have to do a search to find out which other numbers made or received calls from that switchboard. That's going to take (some amount of) time.
Did they make mistakes? Certainly. Did they achieve the primary objective (and kill the right person this time!), and also get out safely, without any of the agents' real identities being compromised? Yes.
The operation wasn't bungled; it was at the very least a qualified success.
I wonder when we'll get the second series of Archer over here.
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(no subject)
Date: 2011-01-06 03:21 pm (UTC)- Assassinate Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh
- Extract agents unharmed
- Preserve secrecy of operation
- Avoid embarrassment for Israel
and that the failure of (3) and (4) is effectively a failure of the whole operation. But is this really the case? Is it possible that the Mossad were well aware that covering up an operation like this is unlikely and that goals (3) and (4) may have to be traded off in order to achieve the more important goals (1) and (2)?(no subject)
Date: 2011-01-06 03:33 pm (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 2011-01-06 03:44 pm (UTC)The 'phone switchboard actually seems like a good idea, from the point of view of making it take longer to connect them (and therefore possibly giving precious extra time to get away) -- if you call someone direct and your pursuers look at your 'phone logs, they immediately have the other number. But if you call through a switchboard, they have to do a search to find out which other numbers made or received calls from that switchboard. That's going to take (some amount of) time.
Did they make mistakes? Certainly. Did they achieve the primary objective (and kill the right person this time!), and also get out safely, without any of the agents' real identities being compromised? Yes.
The operation wasn't bungled; it was at the very least a qualified success.
I wonder when we'll get the second series of Archer over here.
S.