The number of voters who voted either Tory or UKIP is near constant - but much more voting UKIP this time.
I'd go for "Half of the previous LDs abstained, half of the previous Tories went UKIP" as the simplest likely explanation.
I've seen reports of poll results stating that only a minority (43%) of those that did vote UKIP would vote that way again at a General Election. That would tally with Tory voters voting UKIP as a protest.
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Date: 2013-03-01 03:01 pm (UTC)I'd go for "Half of the previous LDs abstained, half of the previous Tories went UKIP" as the simplest likely explanation.
I've seen reports of poll results stating that only a minority (43%) of those that did vote UKIP would vote that way again at a General Election. That would tally with Tory voters voting UKIP as a protest.