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ewx| Party | 2010 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| LD | 24966 | 13342 |
| UKIP | 1933 | 11571 |
| Con | 21102 | 10559 |
| Lab | 5153 | 4088 |
| Turnout | 53650 | 41616 |
Turnout fell by 22%. Labour’s vote fell by 20%, i.e. held up compared to turnout but didn't actually go anywhere. Failing to pick up anti-incumbent protest votes is a bit of a problem for the opposition party.
The CON+UKIP vote fell by only 3%, but went from a 92-8 split to a 48-52 split. (It’s only a guess that it's the same people both times round but I think it’s a fairly plausible one.)
Nigel Farage is plainly onto something with “If the Conservatives hadn't split our vote we would have won” although I cannot help but be reminded of the (probably apocryphal) Enver Hoxha quote: “Never forget that, with China, Albania has a quarter of the world’s population.”
The LD vote fell by nearly 50%. Given the fall in turnout, “half of previous LD voters stayed home” isn’t an implausible interpretation.
(no subject)
Date: 2013-03-01 03:01 pm (UTC)I'd go for "Half of the previous LDs abstained, half of the previous Tories went UKIP" as the simplest likely explanation.
I've seen reports of poll results stating that only a minority (43%) of those that did vote UKIP would vote that way again at a General Election. That would tally with Tory voters voting UKIP as a protest.